As a consequence of China’s one-child policy, its population is aging at an accelerated pace. Two years from now, the share of the Chinese population younger than the age of 20 will fall below the same share in the US, and will continue to fall for the near future. Today, the median age for the U.S. is 36.6 and China is 34.2.

As the share of children falls, the share of older persons will rise. For China, population aging will hit much more quickly than even in parts of the more-developed world. In around 15 years, the median age in China will be older than in the US.

Nielsen advises that a mix of brands targeted to different demographic groups, or those that work well in India or other less-developed nations, may struggle in China. Large families with children, typically the biggest market segment available in the less-developed world, are nonexistent in China. Very few households have more than two children and those with one greatly outnumber those with two.

As the Chinese population ages, household sizes will continue to shrink and the share of households that have children will continue to fall. This means less variance in the buying rate for products that rely on use by multiple family members for volume. Gaining new users and the retention of current users will be far more important strategies than seeking to grow volume within existing users.

Lessons marketers learn in the more-developed world about targeting older consumers should pay dividends in China. By around 2038, there will be as many persons older than the age of 65 in China as there are younger than the age of 20. After 2038, older consumers will outnumber younger ones. Marketers who can tap these older generations could do very well.

Source: Marketing Charts